“THE FOUR STATE SOLUTION” IN IRAQ

9 08 2009

A considered idea requested to be sent to the United States Embassy and to be passed up via the Air Attach, Colonel E. McAlister, USAF
The implications of this are considerable.

Inspired by my Inupiat Eskimo friend William Wallaq Brown
Staff Sergeant, Alaska National Guard
{Killed whilst on active duty (Humvee) Iraq service}

20th July 2007

What with the recent US election and its echo in Congress, the American People, close to true despair, are really crying out for a “new strategy.” Perhaps summed up best by Representative John Lewis, who was speaking for withdrawal –
“It is a step which would bring an end to this madness.” [ABC News, July 12, 2007]
Seeking to be of assistance to my many America friends and also the young people of the Islamic world, and because nobody else has come up with a necessary strategy, this professor telephoned the Embassies. [July 12th 2007] As one who supported the War in Iraq (a necessary evil) I had four years prior, telephoned the US Embassy, Tokyo, and appealed that the main Iraq Army not be broken-up. These are my current observations.

First, you should know that this author has been recognised at high level by the US Government (Homeland Security) who issued to me one of the 300 or so worldwide E-11 “extraordinary capacity” entry visas. These are reserved for those whom they judged (and by one of the toughest panels in the US) to have forward thinking enough, that could indeed change America. The E-11 goes to such grandees as Nobel laureates, and is even rarer than the Olympic gold medal.
Before I offer the straightforward outline, you can be fairly sure that this is something genuinely new, that you will not have come across before; genuinely a “new strategy.”

Change Course

Chairman of the Senate Armed Forces Committee, Carl Levin says; “There is no solution in Iraq other than a political solution … The current course is endangering Iraqi people, continually. It is the current course which isn’t working. It’s the current course which has led to the huge slaughter of hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.” [NewsHour – July 16, 2007]
History

The roots of the problem are quite recent. In 1920, it was in London, where British (and French) politicians of the day carved out of the rumbled Turkish empire this three part nation. [That was the Sykes-Picot Agreement -11 November 1920] The UK, back then, sent in the army to control the situation and lost 10,000 dead soldiers in the first year, alone. My father, a 14-year-old kilted soldier back then, he was lucky not to go!

The Only Policy to Approximate “Victory!”

Senators Biden (D) and now Brownback (R) – both running of president – have suggested the “3 State Solution.”

The only policy left to stop a Shia/Sunni full blown civil War, with its unthinkable horrors, is the undoing of the original partition. Re-partition, this made up ‘nation’, but not into three, but into Four.

But where is Washington Now?

Apart from ‘withdrawal’ and ‘surge’ there are no other ‘strategies’ (if we may call them that) on offer. ‘Surge’ is just another name for ‘reinforcement.’ The most persistent current ‘strategy’ coming out of Washington these days, be it Congress or the many presidential campaigns, is ‘phased withdrawal and beginning 120-days from passage of the resolution.’ That number, by the way is completely arbitrary. Retreat, by the way, is in no way a real or ‘new’ strategy.

What might it mean, if carried through?

Starting on Day 121 it will begin. As things are currently set, all those who supported the Coalition will fall immediately into real peril. Already, many have been gravely threatened, if not actually killed. Here are two examples of two threats, delivered in the mail:-
“You are enemies of God” / “We will cut off your heads.”
Says ‘Ibrahim’ to the former US government officer Kirk W. Johnson, who spent one year in Iraq; “Every day I wake up, I ask my God, why am I still alive?”
Johnson explains: “They risked their lives every single day just to come and help us.” So, he visited the State Department, “But he got nowhere,” said ABC News [July 15, 2007] Johnson made a list of some 500 Iraqis, all gravely endangered by their association with the USA. Despite valiant work by Johnson and his seeing of many “Congressmen and senators, not a single person from the list, not ‘Ibrahim’, not anyone else, has been let into this country,” says ABC.

Assistant Secretary of State Ellen Sauerbrey is the person heading up on this matter. When ABC brought up the Vietnam example “140,000 resettled (in the US) in just 4-months.” The excuse offered on why not repeat was;
“After 9/11 it is a different world we live in today.” Less moral, does she mean? [This is all in marked contrast to the Vietnam pull out. Then, with President Ford’s close, personal involvement, the US pulled virtually all target groups out and into America. So far the US has offered the 130,000, those who have worked with the Coalition, and never mind their beloved families. (When last noted this mass of loyal humanity had secured 10 US visas.)

As for the now famous Kirk list. “I don’t have Kirk’s list” the Assistant Secretary explained. In fact later it turned out her office did indeed have a copy. Kirk’s analysis: “Means … she doesn’t care about this issue.” There maybe as many as 110,000 of such good folk, and together with their families, number perhaps a bit less than a half million, all waiting, praying to survive …?

It will not be Pretty

We can easily imagine the scenes: perhaps some confused, frightened fellow who had a cleaning job on base, executed, his head taken-off with a hacksaw. Or an electric drill pushed through the skull of yet another, no longer needed, Arabic /English translator. These grotesque nightmares are in perfect keeping with life in today’s Iraq. Once this madness starts nothing can hold Iraq together. The only security can come from one’s own co-religionists.

We can also expect a summer of show trials. Could become a regular nightly featured and (public) executions. And for what — having a relative who washed dishes for the Americans at the PX.

Can America then, so frantic today to get out, stomach this kind of terror?? President Bush is right here, I think — good against evil. Today, will seem as nothing when compared to the potential unleashed by withdrawal and starting right after – Day 121.

Reaction in Congress

The only politician I have heard give a whiff of concern is Senator Lindsey Graham, just back from Iraq. No doubt, while there, he would have come face to face with well nigh frantic Iraqis, those working with the US and Coalition, and staring at their fate. Will it be escape or death?
This is how it goes back in Washington — July 12, 2007. Senior ABC News correspondent, Jake Tapper is telling us:-
“Some foreign policy experts predict that such a withdrawal would unleash genocide against innocent Iraqis. It is a subject that Democrats do not wish to discuss.”
Senate Majority leader Harry Reid was being asked —
“Do you think (as an Iraqi) you will be safer with US troops out?” Clear enough?
“Umm, it is clear that the Iraqi People don’t want us there; it is now clear that there is a state of chaos in Iraq; and it is up the Iraqi people to make themselves safe.”
“With respect Senator, you did not answer my question,” persisted the correspondent.
“This is not a debate,” snapped back the senate majority leader. “We are answering questions!” The correspondent tried, a third time.
“Will the Iraqis be safer?”
(Shake of head) “Anyone else have a question?” Senator Chuck Schumer, standing behind, looked on apparently untroubled by the mass loss of life envisaged by the question. What really mattered was short term political gain. Indeed, Senator Lindsey Graham, in another corridor, was saying that Senator Read had been caught talking about his hopes for additional senate seats to be gotten from out of this War …

By this point anybody not voting against the War is courting electoral suicide. And yet this is the de-facto strategy now gaining steam in Washington.

Bob Woodruff of ABC News

One in the sea of the abandoned is the brilliant Iraqi soldier who saved ABC reporter, Bob Woodruff’s life. This charmed Iraqi soldier-translator has survived no less than thirty odd, bomb attacks. Despite Woodruff and fulsome praise from his various US commanders, ‘the finest soldier I have ever seen.’ He remains without an entry visa into the US — Abandoned.

Abandonment is not New

Remember the southern Shias? In 1990 they were encouraged to rise against Saddam, which they dutifully did. Once exposed they were then left – abandoned – and in their turn, they too slaughtered.

Trust

When the dust clears on the American withdrawal, who then in America will then be comfortable with what America’s stampede out actual done to those who placed their total trust in the Great Democracy? Those souls who saw America as a shining light? What must they think? What must the rest of the watching Arab Street be thinking? Withdrawal is not a strategy, it is a non-strategy.

Make no mistake: if America leaves these loyal, innocent people, then it will be seen by the whole world as the worst mass betrayal in US history. Who can live with this? It will be generations before trust, friend or foe alike, can ever again trust the United States.

Love

And it is not just those who trusted in America who are at risk. What about the good many Shias who married Sunnis? What is to become of these frightened folk?

And what of the Iraqi woman, those of the middle-class of this formerly prosperous and growing country? For them it may well be a return to the Dark Ages, made yet more sinister by the resurgent fanatics. All that. And it could follow a bloody Civil War. Indeed truly awful.

Is there another way? Indeed there is …

“The Four State Solution”

We want Victory. We want a Democratic model in the Mid- East. Yes, we can have it by looking at a ‘Four State Solution.’ If the Green Zone is declared to become like a kind of Luxemburg. This will include Haifa Street and as much other additional area as necessary. This must include all the 110,000 Iraqis who have helped the Occupation. All together with all those who believe in democracy, and as likely voted for it. And now those life and death visa so wilfully denied. A Four State Solution will need no more those visas.

The (former) Green Zone and associated areas would carry the original full state name of Iraq. This is what India did when Pakistan was split from out of old British India. This will be the Democratic model that the world wants. It will also be easily to defend. Car bombs could be kept out.

The Rest of Iraq

The big and overriding issue is the ancient city of Baghdad, upon which the whole, rest of the country hinges. However, with the exception of Kurdistan, the cities and towns of the rest of Iraq, will have to decide with which new national entity they may wish to associate. It will not likely be neat.

Oil Sharing

That, and of course an equitable split on future oil revenue via a straight population breakdown. International help will be needed (when safe) to get things running again.

Time Frame with a Real Strategy

Three and a half weeks, approx.

‘End of Major Hostilities’ Really

The vast bulk of Coalition forces will be almost immediately cleared out of harms way. Their last strategic job would be most key. Escort the various populations into their respective new neighbourhoods. Yes, it would be a royal mess of organizing, in the various receiving localities. Of course, with so much moving about such as property rights will be complex. Swaps could be encouraged.

It is to be understood that it is for the safety of everybody and that the split is necessary because it pre-empts a sectarian civil war. A very real possibility when the current structure falls down. One thinks of a replay of the partition of India into India and Pakistan. Difficult, for sure, but people will at least have their life. And we can envisage an end to cheek by jowl sectarian violence.

Simply the Best

This final exercise would put the troops in their very best posture, of aiding the frightened and the desperate. Oft heroic help would be warmly given to the mass shifting of Iraqi families. Though in truth very many have already moved to their respective, non-too secure ethnic enclaves. Most Sunnis are in the West, just a couple of enclaves withstanding, and most Shias are across the Tigress River. All those who chose to move could be safely escourted, to and fro, Shia and Sunni across the river, and those for democracy into the brand new established, Luxemburg sized Democratic state. Then the vast bulk of the military return home to a heroes welcome.

‘Four States’ is not continuing the War

‘Four States’ is not continuing the War. It is ending it. It is a reasonable last dash for sustainable democracy, and will somewhat cut down the chances of an all out civil war.

The Bush’s Legacy

This too can also be envisaged. Way not the US president base himself in Iraq for the full 3 and half weeks of the closing campaign. It would have the feel of Shakespearean epic and would be this time truly “transformational.”

Victory

No other strategy does much more than plan defeat. With four stated one can legitimately declare a tempered “victory!” Nothing less than a democratic model for the whole Middle East! It closely fits all the early War objectives! Four States, I repeat offers “Victory!”

And what will be saved — The costs to Date

Senator Durban: “As of this morning we have lost 3,611 soldiers … another 26,000 have been seriously injured, about 10,000 of them have faced amputations, traumatic brain injury, serious burns, many of their lives will never be the same. We have spent over 500 billion $, the spending rate is now 10 billion $ a month for this War in Iraq. [PBS NewsHour, July 12, 2007]

Returning Heroes

A true celebration for the speedily returning. The young soldiers, with many teenagers among them {In Minnesota I carried a handed out small cross, with a name, and represented a dead 18-year old soldier.} They must all return to America as heroes! They are true heroes. And New York City of 9/11 could give its traditional ticker tape welcome with 130,000 soldiers (returning in shifts) marching through Manhattan. There should be included Coalition troops, and of all the Nations who went. Each should receive honorary citizenship of New York. Also, all the Coalition leaders; those who initially signed on and lost position because of it. The US or NY should issue special medals to all Coalitions troops.

Those alone, who have born the burden of this War on Terror

Especial attention and profound respect must be given to the folks and families of All. For the 3,611 dead, special banners and a unique obelisk at the 9/11 site; inscribed all the names. And all the wounded soldiers of Senator Durban’s list will be there. All the families will be brought in from all parts. And from a grateful US of A, a mass aerial flyby is fitting. What a day!
Wounded Heroes

America must task itself severely, that each returning severely wounded soldier be fully taken care off. We hear stories of returning soldiers being pressured by such as debt collecting agencies, to ‘repay’ the government! Coming off combat pay when wounded, and we know of Walter Reed. This must change and dramatically.

To Show the Nation’s Respect …

When a young gung-ho lad, who can do 300 push-ups returns home broken and missing limbs and TSS, etc. They have also lost the capacity to be the bread winning. The situation for the young wife is nothing short of horrific. (The ‘Marlboro’ soldier married his childhood sweetheart; it lasted 3 weeks.) America must maintain these horribly pressured families. How best would be that each severely wounded be issued with one million dollars. Now, he can remain and always be seen as a hero to his family, and be able to pay for wife’s holiday, and she will always know it comes because of husband’s great, lifelong sacrifice. These are the only people in America suffering for the so-called War on Terror. It’s only right for the richest nation on Earth.

Now Begin the Real ‘War’ on Terror

Senator John Edwards was right. Yes, the ‘War on Terror’ is a bumper sticker. I would not call this a War, not exactly. For where is the mobilization of the populations? The special fund raising; bonds, taxes, etc.? How about a new title, perhaps based on the ‘Malaya Emergency.’ Global Peace Emergency, any good? However, as Daniel Benjamin, formerly of the National Security Council said; “An ideology gaining ground.” [PBS NewsHour, July 12, 2007]

Post-New York Parade Initiatives

Immediately, we must combat the vile thinking and criminalized behaviour behind resurgent Islam. Put the philosophies under the microscope, bring out its sterile bankruptcy — point by bloody point.
“Is it to be Democracy or bombed buses, you decide?” There is no ‘equality.’ It must be exposed for what it is.

Church leaders, that same day, why not unequivocally sign a statement disconnecting murder from any religious justification what-so-ever.

The War was not a mistake

The War was not a mistake. How can it be seen in that way when as Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson tells us;
“I have had mothers, I have had wives, people who have come up to me, lost their loved ones, and they have said – ‘Please don’t let them have dies in vain.’ Don’t say that this was not a worthy course.”
We must honour of the sacrifice made by these families.

The War was Indeed Won!

The War was won! A most brilliant success! It took about one week and there were virtually no casualties to the Coalition. The Coalition has not lost a single battle, then or since. Technologically, it remains invincible. (However, ‘reconstruction and peace’ is of course the on-going nightmare, one we all can grief over.)

The One Week Gulf War Two was Right

Sanctions, those on at the time (pre-War) may have killed as many as 200,000 babies (by some estimates I have read). These dreadful sanctions were lifted the minute the war opened.

The UN Security Council had been defied repeatedly, several times. In the face of its authority being so flouted, it could not have successfully maintained its crucial role for a peaceful world.

During the War four mass graves were discovered. Up to 80,000 murdered by Saddam were turfed into them. These included woman, children and the handicapped, as well as anybody else. Some still living no doubt found themselves crushed beneath the hundreds of tons of human weight, the thousands on top of them. Horror, horror.

The terror state where torture was routine, ended with the death of Saddam and his two odious sons. Chemical Ali, who did use WMD against the Kurds, likewise, is no more. These were the worthy reasons for the War.

Democracy was Begun

There was massive voting and that pressured (for a while) all the other non-democratic states.

The Mass Failures of the Occupation

After 4-years, how come the electric power is what 2/3 hours a day, worse than during Saddam Hussein regime managed after several years of near total sanctions. Could Middle America take this? Why not a nuclear aircraft carrier moored in Basra and sending ashore electricity?

Can any non-Iraqi take a cab from Baghdad airport to the Green Zone – is it safe? And this after 4-years of Occupation! [Who has most to fear after dark; an Iraqi walking across Sadh City, or an American walking through pretty well any US city at night?]

Why is the US, a country which inverted the words “public relations” unable to defeat in that arena, much of world opinion? Be bettered in fact by amateurs on the internet, fanatics who slaughter thousands of innocents on the street?

The Abu Greb prison scandal was not, I suspect, for full physical torture, not at all. It was for creating fearful postcards, to intimidate. Of course, no defence of a whole range of disgusting activity. In some particular calculated crimes committed by US ‘soldiers’ against Iraqis are we not seeing echoes of America’s own underclass?

Benchmarks

The constant refrain, and at fever pitch is the Iraqi (elected) government “benchmarks.” How does the US compare? On critical issue of immigration reform — No legislation could be agreed. How about the 31shot dead at Virginia Tech? No legislation could be agreed. The assault weapon ban was even lifted at that very time, and without even debate. Did Congress step up to the plate, then? Did they reach these gaping political benchmarks?

Not stepping-up to the Plate

If the Iraqi parliamentarians do vote, they stand a real possibility of kidnap and murder, to themselves and their families. What of the US Congress’s 530 odd members with only one son gone to Iraq?

Despite the undoubted fecklessness of the current Iraqi Parliament, the despairing non-action. (Like the taking off of a 2-month holiday this summer!) The secondary reason, I suspect, in part, is because they are already functioning in a partitioned state, with the central government (temporary) not over much in consideration.

“Disarm the militias”

America demands of the Iraq elected Government and repeatedly “Disarm the militias.” How can they do that, after their regular army was disbanded? Or when the mightiest military in the world has signally failed to do the same?

It might be remembered that the Shias do deserve credit for holding off an impending civil war, for two full years, and via repeated requests of Grand Ayatollah Sistani? The final lethal provocation was when the Shia holy Askari Mosque in Samarra was torn asunder. [Feb 23, 2006]

ID another killer to IED

Why were Iraqis still carrying ID cards, when such become defacto death warrants, at the wrong road block?

Weapons of Mass Destruction

WMD: not finding them a second time round is not an issue. Saddam had used them twice before and there is no doubt that given the chance, he would do so again. You may recall that UN inspectors pulled out hundreds of tons of WMD related material, and that before Gulf War 2 opened. The doubt Saddam created were warrant enough to topple him.

Back before Gulf War One, Saddam was within some 3-months of an Atomic Bomb. That was, according to, if I recall correctly, an Iraqi Lieutenant General. Tel Aviv would have been a likely first target. That in line with those ineffectual Scud missiles used in Gulf War One.

Let us not ever forget the vast suffering still on-going 62-years later in Japan. A modern A bomb can equal 50 ‘Hiroshimas.’ Unimaginable. This was what the world we were looking at in 1990. There was no room for trusting Saddam Hussein a second time.

Safe Haven for Terrorists

For goodness sake, we already have that, Pakistan’s tribal areas! Safe havens — why not encourage them. Get them together and then one bomb would put paid to the bunch, all at once.

“Fight them there, so not Here”

No. They are already ‘Here.’ Are the Iraqi insurgents really going to board a budget airline and fly to the US as holidaymakers?!
It’s the Economy, Stupid!

Quite a number of the insurgents seems, is still non-ideological. Insurgent groups have contacted the US Army and offered to stop their attacks on them; that is if they can get back their ‘jobs and pensions.’ Lieutenant Colonels have been authorized to talk to them. That is the final denunciation of pro-consul Paul Bremer 111, breaking-up the Iraqi Army.

Turkey and the Kurds

Why is fiction maintained that the Kurdish north will ever join the engulfing madhouse to the south, the former Iraq? What entity could every think to do such a thing?

Turkey fears a Kurdistan. Why not a safer Turkey with a Kurdistan? Surely US peacekeepers between the two, for a while, and the Kurds remaining America’s firmest friend. With their own state, which was fully expected in the 1920s, the Kurds themselves could now relax a bit. Ultimately, the peace of the region is way more important, than preventable fears, and I think Turkey can be convinced of that, and for a safer region. Why not the area return to a more cordial Age.

This Englishman says in closing;
“Thank you America for your great contribution, courage and sacrifice.”

George Meegan

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